First of all, CONGRATULATIONS to Congress & UPA for getting a victory in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections!
There will be several post mortem of the election results in the weeks to come. Such analysis, despite being "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" or "20/20 Vision in Hindsight", is necessary. In fact, it is to be seen as a perfect learning opportunity in marketing and branding as well as being able to sell one's vision for the nation in a language and manner that the common man can relate to and, more importantly, buy in to. Also, it is in failures that a person or a party or a society learns more than in successes.
My Analysis of why BJP Lost & how it can move forward:
1. Election results in a democracy are not a declaration of right or wrong. They are a declaration of popularity. It is a contest between popularity of alternative visions or, even better, popularity of "perceptions of alternative vision". In this regard, it is not the “vision as the parties define” that get voted on but the perception of alternative visions that the voter believes he is choosing from that matters.
Common man has seen the media channels abusing BJP day in & day out. An average 18-35 year old in India who has been watching TV news channels in the last 10 years has been barely exposed to any positive aspects of BJP but a lot of negatives (accusations) about BJP. Common man thinks that if ALL channels are saying these bad things about BJP, they must be true. While the media has been more than just partial toward Congress, this has not been news to BJP and it should have done something about it a long time ago. So, not having BJP’s own media outlets and those sympathetic to it (English, Hindi and regional languages – Print & TV) is simply NOT an option going forward.
2. If BJP has enough resources to conduct it's own nationwide exit polls, it certainly should have better analyzed issues that would click with voters through extensive market research. Case at point is BJP's focus on Manmohan Singh being the weakest PM ever. Whether this is true or not, BJP should have verified whether this criticism was going to bring it more votes or whether it would be perceived by the electorate as an unfair attack on a man they believed to be decent and honest. Unfortunately, common man did not care that he indeed had diminished the status of the PM's office. So, talking about it incessantly not only didn't bring in more votes for BJP but also offended a big chunk of Aam Admi.
3. Congress had a variety of advertisements far exceeding # of ads by BJP and they were better received by audiences. Whether or not they were truthful or part propaganda is irrelevant once the elections are over. The fact is people bought in to Congress ads more so than in to BJP's ads. It will be worth analysing # of times Congress ads were broadcast relative to BJP ads and whether the Congress Ad budget was out of compliance with Election Commission regulations.
4. As part of BJP’s introspection, BJP should invite MJ Akbar, NK Singh, Mark Tully, Lord Meghanand Desai and other independent outsiders from all walks of life (who neither have hatred toward BJP nor are BJP fans) to get their perspective on BJP’s weaknesses and suggestions for turn around strategy. It is in BJP’s self interest to get constructive criticism from such outsiders. I did not mention the likes of Swapan Dasgupta and Tarun Vijay due to their known proximity to BJP. But their feedback is equally valuable.
5. BJP needs to get rid of “Communal” stigma from the minds of average voter – be it by completely distancing itself from any kind of violent acts, taking everyone making malicious allegations to court, coming out w/ it’s own media outlets etc.
6. Most importantly, it is a collective responsibility toward the debacle and hence it is crucial that BJP NOT begin infighting but recover quickly and work on a long-term rebound plan. For the same reasons, it is crucial that BJP not accept Advani’s offer to quit for at least another 6-12 months so that it does not appear as a finger pointing / scapegoating exercise. That would be futile. For the same reason, Rajnath Singh should neither quit before his term ends nor pursue a 2nd term as President. Both should ensure a smooth transition to a new and younger leadership.
7. BJP needs to reverse engineer its succession plans with 2014 elections in mind. After all, mid-term elections before 2014 seem highly unlikely. A mass leader should be heading the PARTY at that time and not some back room boys. Sushama Swaraj at the helm of BJP should be a good counter to Sonia Gandhi then. In the mean time, another articulate mass leader, preferably in his / her 50s or 60s should take over from Rajnath Singh and bring discipline and focus to the party followed by Sushama Swaraj as president of BJP in 2012. This would help her establish her credentials well before the 2014 elections.
8. Development is only one aspect of votes. When Nitish gets more sweeping results in Bihar (80% of seats) with much stronger opponent in Lallu than Modi does in Gujarat (60% of seats), the “perception of all inclusive growth” seems to matter at least as much if not more than actual development.
9. As much as I admire Narendra Modi for his development agenda, given the kind of impotent & ignorant Aam Admi that BJP needs to pander to (I have to respect his decision but do not have to agree with him) and given the current lack of Pro-BJP & Pro-Hindutva media, Narendra Modi needs to go well beyond Development and incessantly TALK and deliver on Samarasata (peaceful & all inclusive growth) before he can emerge as a national level leader for BJP. Otherwise, forget about NDA accepting him as it's PM candidate even if he gets a clean chit from the Nanavati commission. More on this in a later blog. It may therefore become imperative for BJP to project Arun Jaitley or CM from another BJP ruled state (MP or Karnataka) as its PM candidate in 2014. BJP needs to make that decision at least 2 years before the next Lok Sabha elections. Remember that BJP's PM Candidate will be fighting the 2014 elections against Rahul Gandhi as Congress / UPA's PM candidate.
10. BJP proclaims “justice for all and discrimination against none”. It needs to more aggressively prove that it means it by fielding more winnable Muslim candidates at all levels.
11. BJP should specifically target & promote youth at ALL levels within the party in the next 2-3 years. To do this, 1/3rd of party positions should being occupied by age groups of 25-40, 40-55 and 55-70 would be a perfect mix of energy, experience & maturity. Those above 70 should play a purely advisory role in the party and senior ministers in the government (but not as PM level candidates). Similarly, women should hold 25-33% of positions within the party across all levels.
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